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There was a time when the future of the electric vehicle was seen as a car that broke with known designs. As if the automobile industry was preparing for the biggest revolution ever seen in its market. More focused on design than on ending the environmental impact of oil combustion.
Although this revolutionary vision of the future of the electric vehicle seems to be arriving in dribs and drabs. These groundbreaking designs, which seemed more like something out of the latest science fiction blockbuster than practical, do not end up landing in a conservative market.
On the contrary, hybrid engine vehicles (electric and combustion) are breaking into the car fleet. With modern designs adapted to the mobility needs of increasingly larger cities.
Thus, and leaving science fiction behind, the future of the electric car is based on two major pillars that the industry must strengthen in order to overcome current combustion engines:
Both factors, according to market trends, seem to be the decisive ones when it comes to making the definitive leap towards a vehicle that, in addition to behaving responsibly with the environment, can be attractive to the consumer final.
Beyond the trends, there is an enlightening fact in this regard: 80% of people would like to have an electric car. But reasons such as the high price, the inability to recharge and the short battery life mean that only 2% of annual vehicle sales in Spain are cars of this type.
But let’s get into the details. What growth prospects does the electric vehicle market have?
With the Tesla’s Model 3 sweeping sales, even before it is released, what is clear is that there is an interest in a more ecological alternative when choosing the vehicle that will take us to work or to spend a weekend on the coast.
Although it is true that sales figures for electric cars are still very low, the market seems to be opening up its niche through hybrid cars. That combine electric propulsion motor with combustion engines.
With an increase in sales, in Spain, of 177% of electric vehicles, and 72.9% of hybrids, the upward trend is clear. Even though both only represent 0.22% and 2% of annual vehicle sales in the country.
But what do the experts say? A recent report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance sheds light on the matter by putting a date on what they call the “Electric Vehicle Revolution.” This will be in 2022 and will be driven by falling prices for both batteries and the vehicles themselves. Although the revolution will be in 2022, by 2040, the sale of electric vehicles, on a global scale, will reach 41 million units, representing 35% of the total, 90 times the current figure.
By then, 25% of the cars on the roads will already be electric, which will mean spending 13 million barrels of oil per day to the consumption of 1,900 TWh of electricity, a not inconsiderable figure if we take into account that it represents 8% of the current daily electricity demand on a global scale.
What we pay for an electric vehicle is directly related to the cost of the battery, which can represent between 30-50% of the final price of the car, so improving its efficiency and reducing costs in what we can consider the heart of the vehicle will be the final push for the future of the electric vehicle and its consolidation.
Thus, since 2010 the price of a standard battery for an electric car has suffered a 65% drop, reaching a price of $350 per kWh, although still far from the $120/kWh expected in 2030.
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
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